Long Term Trends in Real Estate

I’m a little slow on this one, but back in the November issue of Business 2.0, they has a story called The Next real Estate Boom. The article looks at three long term strategies for real estate investing. They are predicting tremendous opportunities in real estate in the next 25 year.

The three long term strategies are:

1) Step Into the Path of Sprawl - Major cities which are relatively lose together are going to start merging, and the land between them is going to be very valuable. This is a good place to do raw land investment.

2) Park Money in Parking Lots - Many American cities have more parking lots then they need, and as land in urban areas becomes more valuable, opportunities to build vertically will exist. Parking lots allow this kind of expansion called infill.

3) Give Them What They Quieren - The Latino population in America is booming; 33 million more are expected in this county by 2030. These 33 million people will need housing and places to shop. Catering towards Latinos will make a lot of sense.

Foreclosures to Rise

An article from MSN real estate mentions predictions of a 15% increase in foreclosures this year. This is due to the large number of subprime loans, 19% now compared to 5% ten years ago. Subprime loans are given to people who’s credit is not stellar, so they are generally riskier. This in addition to rates going up on adjustable rate mortgages, high levels of consumer debt, and new riskier loans such as interest only ones will drive foreclosures higher.

Foreclosures can present excellent opportunities for real estate investors who know how to take advantage of them.

Mortgage Rates Fall

Mortgage rates have fallen to their lowest level since October, according to an article from Bankrate.com. They also talk about some predictions for 2006 by some experts. They all expect rates to rise a little by the end of the year, and appreciation of houses to slow down from the recent boom.

Housing Market Outlook for 2006

Kiplinger’s has a good article that talks about the overall housing market outlook for 2006. It mixes analysts thoughts with anecdotes. It seems to present a pretty balanced view of things.

Interest rates on 30-year fixed-rate loans have begun to rise, and they could reach 7% or more by the end of 2006 — a level at which most economists agree that buyers could begin to put the brakes on home purchases. Zandi says lenders are beginning to self-regulate and to become less aggressive in courting buyers, and they may find it difficult to come up with the next new thing. And he thinks investors in many “juiced-up” markets sense that the markets are topping out, especially when it comes to high-end condos.

It will be interesting to see if investors actually stop investing in real estate, or if they just switch to other markets.